Many people are wondering who will be the biggest loser of the war? Those who mark Germany guess correctly. And why? Let's start at the beginning!

In 2011, Germany decided to close its operating nuclear power plants. The explanation is the tsunami-stricken Fukushima nuclear power plant disaster in Japan.

"Fukushima fundamentally changed my perception of nuclear power plants"

Chancellor Merkel, whose government decided to extend the operating time of the power plants by an average of 14 years a few months ago, emphasized the reason for the decision. The sudden change in direction was also contributed to by the fact that the demonstrations against the use of nuclear energy in Germany increased to an extraordinary extent, and the support of the government coalition decreased rapidly, the contemporary index wrote.

But this is not quite true. Because the demonstrations against the use of nuclear energy had already strengthened much earlier, and even Chancellor Schröder (SPD) spent his precious time quietly withdrawing nuclear power plants. I still remember the images when the emerging German greens chained themselves to the train tracks to prevent the transportation of nuclear waste (Germany could not keep nuclear waste, i.e. "burnt" fuel, so that it could not accidentally produce an atomic bomb). They were dramatic images, for which the worried German people rewarded the Greens, the later destroyers of Germany. The Fukushima disaster only added a shovel to this. However, German nuclear power plants are not threatened by earthquakes or tsunamis.

On the other hand, the Greens - like our Momentum - built a political brand from destruction, from a modern revolution. With such success that they are now one of the parties in the government coalition. This would not have been possible if the Greens had not destroyed the well-functioning nuclear-based German energy system.

But it was smashed. And in the meantime, the Germans buy electricity produced on a nuclear basis from the French.

Schröder and his team started looking for a solution and found it: cheap Russian gas! He managed to find it so well that after his term expired and he stepped down as chancellor, Schröder agreed to build the Nord Stream for the Russian-German joint venture Gazprom - reportedly for a modest salary of 5 million euros a year.

And why do the Germans need gas? At that time, there was not yet such a fetish for CO2, so they figured out that the cheapest way to generate electricity was with gas. With a special power plant. Let's see what it is.

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The combined cycle gas turbine power plant

The combined cycle gas turbine power plant is constructed as follows. Imagine a huge airplane engine, this is a gas turbine that burns the gas, spins and rotates a huge generator. It produces electricity.

At the same time, the hot gases coming out of the gas turbine are not let into the chimney, and from there to the outside, but are used to heat a steam boiler, and with the steam - as in a traditional coal power plant - another turbine is turned, which also has a generator, which also produces electricity. Thus, the combined cycle gas turbine power plant utilizes the thermal energy potentially stored in the gas with a much higher efficiency, somewhere around 60-70%. If even the residual heat produced in this way is used, for example for district heating, the efficiency of the entire system is somewhere around 80-85%. Of course, the construction of the power plant is expensive, but it pays off thanks to the high efficiency and other advantages.

The combined-cycle gas turbine power plant can be started quite quickly, so it is suitable for flexibly covering daily changing energy needs, and is also a good reserve system behind wind and solar power plants. on MO e.g. There is a combined cycle gas turbine power plant in Csepel, which participates in district heating in the winter.

So, the Germans started building combined cycle gas turbine power plants, while the North Stream was being built. The Americans were fed up with this, they realized that the Germans would soon multiply their gas consumption. They should sell American shale gas. Business is business! To do this, first of all, it is necessary to make the Russian gas transportation routes, which at that time ran through Ukraine, unreliable. That's why there was all of Majdan - a revolution on 3km2 in a country of 600,000 km2! After the Maidan - which was actually a coup, the elected Yanukovych fled - the proven American agent and oligarch Poroshenko somehow came to power - I don't even understand, supposedly there were free elections - and the Americans - the Nobel Peace Prize laureate Obama was the one president - embedded themselves in the Ukrainian government and public administration, and the Biden family and Kerry's relatives in the Ukrainian energy and gas transportation companies. Precisely in order to make gas transit through Ukraine more difficult for the Russians.

It is only secondary that the Russians were also afraid - rightly so - that the Americans would turn Ukraine into a battlefield and fill it with military bases. American missile and aircraft bases 4-500 km below Moscow, Putin did not have a very promising perspective.

The Russians quickly occupied the Crimea in order not to lose the naval port of Sevastopol. Next came the Donbass, thus the possible suspension of Ukraine's possible admission to NATO.

In the meantime, the Germans and Europe, as well as the Russians, began to build alternative gas transport routes. South Stream, North Stream two.

The Americans did everything to make these impossible, and it is no coincidence that Erdoğan's press got worse and worse. The Navalny case was created in order to tell the Germans that they will not buy gas from a country where Navalny is poisoned. No evidence of Navalny's poisoning has been found since then, but Nord Stream has been standing ever since for some inexplicable reason.

In short, the Americans increased the political and partly the military pressure until finally Putin was satisfied, pulled a strong one, and started the war. Which I think he will successfully close within a few weeks, at best there will be sporadic fights here and there. Most of Ukraine comes under Russian control, along with Kiev.

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The sanctions

After recovering from the surprise, Western countries announced a series of sanctions. Most of them are ridiculous or pathetic (the removal of the final venue of the World Cup, the banning of para-athletes, or the sanctioning of Russian cat breeders, up to the freezing of Putin's assets found in the EU - they just didn't even know if such assets even existed), especially in light of the fact that there were never any sanctions against the USA, even though its aggressive war was enough. But the West, out of self-interest, did not harm the energy sector and the settlement system necessary for its operation. But the withdrawal of a number of companies, especially the Germans (Audi, BMW, Mercedes, VW, etc.), is already hurting the Russians as well, I wrote about this before. The Russians called the sanctions a decision tantamount to a declaration of war, to which Putin again pulled the unexpected, ordering serious sanctions himself and cutting off gas deliveries to Western Europe. I don't think the West expected this either.

In addition - as Orsolya Ferencz , the government commissioner responsible for space research, said in A Polgári Mulató the other day - the Russians may withdraw from the operation of the ISS and they have cut off all scientific cooperation with the Germans - or the Germans with the Russians (the average person doesn't even know, but the space station it has engines, they need to be operated, fueled, if the Russians do not do this, the space station will slowly descend towards the Earth, eventually - after years, but - it will fall into pieces and die in the atmosphere; therefore, it must be constantly raised to stay in orbit; this can be done once in a while with a traditional spaceship through the docking module, but it is not very lucky, because the space station is the size of a football field, and it is dangerous to push it at one point).

Only the Russians can launch rockets at the ISS with sufficient regularity, take people up and down, and bring supplies. It's no accident that NASA didn't say anything at first, but that has changed since then. Without the Russians, the ISS and decades of global space cooperation with it are practically over

explained the government commissioner.

And if the Russians stop gas deliveries to Western Europe, then the German energy system, which is based on combined cycle gas turbine power plants, will collapse. This cannot be solved with even more coal, while they are forcing electric cars, so even more electricity would be needed. And all of this could bring the German economy to the floor much sooner than the Russians would feel the impact of the sanctions ordered against them.

But what is most serious: after the Americans – albeit temporarily – knocked out the cheap Russian piped gas from the Western European markets, it turned out that the Americans are unable to transport so much gas by ships, and there is not enough capacity to fill and start the CNG tankers in the US in and especially for their reception in Europe. Not to mention that transferring liquefied gas into the high-pressure pipe system further complicates and makes the system more expensive. But it does not solve the gas shortage.

The USA wanted to grab too big, but it didn't work out. However, Europe was left without gas. At the same time, he got a war on his neck!

And while the gas price is in the sky, Western European reserves are at zero, the West is now faced with the fact that it is unable to replace the lost Russian gas. Within weeks, the Western countries, but especially the Germans, will face an energy crisis like the first oil crisis, but which they may not have experienced since the war. If the German energy sector collapses, the German economy collapses, and with it the economies of the EU member states. The West is sinking into a severe recession.

All this for the sake of Ukraine, which the Americans wanted to use as a battlefield, and all the (Ukrainian) oligarchs immediately left at the start of the war, as if they had never had a country.

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From there, a small fictional addition follows.

ATTENTION! Any possible coincidence with the reality that happens later is only the work of chance...

So.

Putin consults with Shoigu about the successful capture of Kiev, he is pleased to note that Kiev is Russian again. Then he gets up, grabs his Mauser and goes to Siberia to hunt bears.

After resting, he goes home to the Kremlin and calls Lavrov there.

"You, Szerjozsa, let's write down what our conditions are!" Then call Berlin, Paris, London, Washington to see if they will accept it as a basis for negotiations... Whoever says no, take him off the list, we will not negotiate with him.

"Okay Vologya, I'm writing..."

And Putin begins to dictate:

– Recognition of the annexation of Ukraine,

- Recognition of Russia's new borders,

- The settlement of the status of the rest of Ukraine - we can negotiate here, we need the ability to compromise - adds Putin with a smile,

– Withdrawal of American troops and liquidation of their bases in the countries that joined NATO after 1990, especially in Poland and Romania,

– Withdrawal of the NATO fleet from the Black Sea,

– Withdrawal of sanctions, especially for cat breeders,

– Revocation of all sanctions against Russian athletes,

– BL final in St. Petersburg, according to announcement,

– Formula 1 race in Sochi, according to the calendar...

Putin thinks.

"Editor, did I miss something?"

"Vology, I think it will be enough for now." Maybe we can ask for the unfreezing of our non-existent assets in the EU - adds Lavrov, laughing.

"Okay... tell Scholz separately that as long as he hasn't nodded to everything, it's okay." I'm going back to Baikal to hunt. Call me if we can discuss.

– Yes, and be sure to suggest Budapest as a location!

Hungarians are decent, hospitable people. And their brandy is delicious...

The author is a military engineer and freelance publicist

Ferenc Mernyó

Afterword

Just to avoid misunderstandings, I would like to add that almost everyone will be the loser of the war, maybe except for the USA, but Germany will be the biggest economic loser. The EU loves it, especially the West.

Of course, the biggest loser will be Ukraine, since it will either disappear as a state (it hasn't worked very well so far) or it will shrink to half the size of Hungary.

But why should my heart ache for a country - of course it hurts a little, my university years are connected to Kiev - which was left there by its millionaire and billionaire citizens in the wake of the war, and took the money bags with them?

Ukraine was seen not only by the USA as prey to be plundered, but also by the local oligarchs who suck the blood of Ukrainians.

Only Putin sees it as the root/cradle of Russia (see Kievan Rus). That is why he will take it back and he or his successor will make it flourish.

Featured image: capital.com