Ferenc Mernyó: Marathon for life or death, or how did we get here?

Let's start at the beginning. Very early on.

There once lived a certain Zbigniew Brzezinski (1928-2017; pronounced: Zbigniew Brzeszinski), who took him to the position of Chief National Security Adviser to the (not very sharp minded) Democrat President Jimmy Carter, and - knowing the workings of American politics, the essence of which is "as little power as possible by the people president-elect" - Brzezinski had more power and a stronger influence on US foreign policy than the president himself, who grows peanuts in his spare time. Brzezinski himself was born in Poland, in Warsaw, from where they immigrated to the USA even before World War II, but his parents came from the territory of today's Western Ukraine - according to my Ukrainian friends, from the vicinity of Zolochev (Ternopol county) - (according to the English Wikipedia, from Berezsani, it is also close there, 15-20 km).

Zbigniew Brzezinski hated the Soviet Union from the bottom of his heart. In addition to his countless works written about the Soviet regime, he had a theory, the "Theory of Zero Level Growth", which in a nutshell meant that the Soviet Union should be forced into such a strong arms race that it would bankrupt its planned economy, which was less efficient than market economies. Brzezinski's diabolical plan came to fruition by the end of the 1980s, the Soviet Union plunged into the arms race in 1989-1990 and fell apart.

Yes, dear Reader, you got it right, it was not President Reagan who broke up the Soviet Union. He was just there when it fell apart.

Russia became the "legal heir" of the Soviet Union. The last Soviet president was Gorbachev, the first Russian president was Yeltsin, who came to power with some upheaval, but the mighty Soviet empire essentially fell apart peacefully.

At the same time, a nerve-wracking question remained: the fate of the Soviet nuclear arsenal. Even during Gorbachev's time, an agreement was reached that the apparently disintegrating Soviet Union would consolidate its nuclear weapons on the territory of Russia, move them on, and keep the agreements concluded in the field of nuclear weapons in force, in exchange that NATO would not expand to the East. Russia - despite its economic difficulties - fulfilled the agreement for its part, and thus, among other things, the future Ukraine also became a nuclear-free power (much to the chagrin of the Ukrainians).

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia languished for years, the West made the Russian bear dance on a chain, which in practice looked like the chain had been replaced by a couple of bottles of vodka. The drunken Yeltsin not only painted a miserable picture of the once proud Russia, but he also signed everything that was put before him while drunk.

The West evaluated this as a weakness and gradually scrapped the strategic agreement that was once concluded, and NATO began to expand to the East. Today, Russia directly borders 4 NATO countries (the three Baltic countries and Poland), but has three more NATO neighbors across the Black Sea (Turkey, Romania, Bulgaria).

And then came to power the former KGB officer Vladimir Putin, who was probably serious about getting Russia back on its feet and regaining its former glory. He did it in twenty years. He also had some luck, because at that time there was a major oil crisis, which unexpectedly brought extra income to Russia. At the same time, two initiatives were launched which - it seemed - would bring about reconciliation in the East-West confrontation.

There was a NATO-Russian military partnership (Open Skies, 1992) and in the early 2000s Russia appeared at the G7 summits as the 8th member. It worked so well that for a while it was called the G8 group.

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Then something broke.

First of all, in the shadow of the peace created by the cooperation, the USA began to work on and then slowly take over Ukraine. Perhaps the Russians would have swallowed this in exchange for broad cooperation, but in the meantime the Soros organizations also began to infiltrate Ukraine and Russia.

The fact that the Soros organizations are the extended tentacles of the CIA was revealed by the author of these lines earlier than anyone else, already around 2010-11, although the matter did not have a serious impact.

On the other hand, Putin classified the Soros network as a spy organization and kicked it all out of Russia. But he did not only do this, he also banned LGBTQ propaganda - and not only in kindergartens, but also in public spaces, thus preventing the Pride. These steps were not tolerated by the West.

The Open Skies cooperation essentially stalled, and Putin was no longer invited to the G7.

The West accused Putin of liquidating Litvinenko (a former Russian agent who escaped to the West), then they also wanted to sew the ridiculously transparent Skripal case around Putin's neck, and then they also topped it off with the even more transparent Navalny case. Of the four people, only Litvinenko died,

while in the democratic West - from the mysterious death of Diána to the death of Epstein's business partner the other day, 2-3 dozen political murders may have taken place. Only in the Clinton-Trump election campaign, only in the USA, half a dozen.

The Arab Spring followed, in which the Russians hardened: they did not vote in the UN to bomb Syria with international authorization, and even joined the fight against ISIS on the side of Syria. In a few weeks, they showed the USA how to really take down ISIS, which has been declared a terrorist.

But the relationship between the West and Russia is completely cold.

In the meantime, the Maidan took place in Kiev - the so-called revolution, which was actually a coup instigated by the Americans - and the USA practically invaded the Ukrainian state administration. The president became Poroshenko, who had proof from Wikileaks that he was a man and an agent of the Americans. He was followed by Zelensky, who was also peeking out of the Americans' pocket.

And the Russians began to sense that the game was not going to be easy. After the Maidan, Crimea was quickly taken, and then annexed to Russia in the legal construction tried in Kosovo.

It was not difficult, Ukrainians barely lived in Crimea. At the same time, apparently with the support of Moscow, the eastern breakaway republics were established, which ensured that Ukraine's NATO membership could not be on the agenda for some time.

In the meantime, "someone" shot down the plane of flight MH-17, according to the West it was the Russians/separatists, according to the Russians it was the Ukrainians or their allies. But it is enough to contrast the Western "evidence" created in Photoshop with the thorough and detailed report of the Russian air defense to see that MH-17 was just the necessary victim to justify the sanctions to be ordered against the Russians.

And then December 2021 arrived, when Putin, in the half-hour international block of a four-hour press conference - left no doubt, when asked by some Western journalists, that they would end the West's wirtschaft in Ukraine.

Mainly the West

the USA dug into Ukraine to such an extent, the secret arming and preparation of the Ukrainians against the Russians took place to such an extent (now we see that this really took place), that it began to threaten Russia's existence.

This is what Putin considered when he announced that they would end it. In a largely non-confrontational tone.

But the West did not take it seriously. This was the last chance for a peaceful settlement.

He had two months to sit at the table. But the West looked down, despised, did not take Putin seriously.

As a final step - after 10 years of patience (and gathering strength and preparation) - Putin launched the war on February 24, 2022 (in Hungarian legend this is the ice-breaking Matthias day). The real goal of which - in contrast to the de-Nazification and demilitarization given to the public - is to occupy a significant part of Ukraine and sweep the Westerners, especially the Americans, out of it once and for all.

The former Kievan Rus' is not an American territory, Putin makes it increasingly clear.

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The stakes are huge!

If Putin loses this war, Russia is over. Russia will fail, it will certainly fall apart.

But if Putin wins this war - the chances are quite good, I wouldn't bet against him - it will drive such a wedge into the Western alliances, it will put some Western countries in such a difficult situation that the West is over. At least as we know it now. Ukraine is also over, there's no doubt about that, it's just a matter of time.

However, no one dares to go to war with the Russians face-to-face - with the possible exception of Márki-Zay.

This is a marathon! For life and death.

***

Finally, in conclusion: It is possible to moralize on whether Putin has the right to start a war without a real casus belli against a neighboring country. One thing is for sure. The USA and the West have launched four (!) major wars since 2000 without a casus belli (since Putin has been in power). Afghanistan, Libya, Iraq, Syria. At the time, no one moralized about these... However, the number of victims can be at least over 200-250 thousand in Iraq alone.

The author is a military engineer and freelance publicist

Featured Image: Mikhail Tereshchenko